The return of the big stick that never went away

Jessica García

Original written in Spanish

The last invasion of Latin America by US military forces was in 1989, when Bush invaded Panama to overthrow Noriega. Although we were never certain that it would not happen again, we understood that it was unlikely. Today, the return to a past of submission to our northern neighbor is evident.

The advance of militarization

Since Trump's arrival in the White House, the advance of militarization in Latin America and the Caribbean has been evident. The presence of military personnel has exceeded the number of personnel permanently stationed in the Caribbean (mainly in the occupied territory of Guantanamo, Cuba, and in Puerto Rico). According to the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), since August, more than 2,000 Marines, ten F-35s have been deployed in Puerto Rico, and recently around 4,500 Navy Marines have been deployed on the USS Gerald R. Ford (CSIS, 2025). Likewise, the presence of all types of US ships, from aircraft carriers to surface warships, has increased. 

Illustration 1: Us Ships in the Caribbean  (Source: CSIS, 2025)

Recently, the Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago authorized US Navy maneuvers in urban and rural areas of the island near Venezuela. Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said the US military presence is aimed at fighting drug trafficking. However, the Venezuelan president denounced them as a foreign “mortgage” on his country and suspended the energy cooperation agreement he had with that country. 

Similarly, the Dominican Republic authorized the United States to temporarily use a military air base and an airport for anti-drug operations, following the visit of U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to that country. According to President Luis Abinader, the United States will have access to restricted areas at San Isidro Air Base and Las Americas International Airport for logistical purposes, such as refueling aircraft and transporting equipment and personnel. According to the president, the scope of this agreement is “technical, limited, and temporary” and aims to strengthen the air and maritime protection ring maintained by the Dominican armed forces in order to “deal a more decisive blow against transnational organized crime.”

Guyana, a country that has a dispute with Venezuela over the Essequibo, acted in the same vein. Guyana has supported the deployment of military forces from its northern neighbor, although without permission for recent military exercises on its territory. On November 7, it received a visit from the head of the Southern Command to discuss a historic military cooperation alliance.

In April, Panama signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States, allowing U.S. military forces to be present on Panamanian territory for training purposes and with permission to use Panamanian government facilities, including the Rodman Naval Base, Howard Air Base, and Fort Sherman, where a training and practice site is located.

 What these examples show is that a large part of the local elites in the region are comfortable with submission to our northern neighbor, beyond statements of supposed equality in cooperation with the regional hegemon.

However, the U.S. military presence is not new. Since the 1980s, the US has maintained a military base in Honduras, where Joint Task Force Bravo, one of two task forces under the Southern Command, operates. Peru, in turn, approved the entry of 600 US military personnel in October 2024, while the current Ecuadorian government attempted to reapprove the installation of a military base in that territory, but was met with opposition from its people. Likewise, in October of this year, the current Argentine president authorized the entry of U.S. forces to conduct military exercises in the southernmost part of the country. Colombia, for its part, has been the United States' historic ally in the region and the main recipient of military aid in the Western Hemisphere, until a few months ago when the relationship between Trump and Petro began to become increasingly tense. However, this does not translate into a transformation of Colombia's relationship of dependence on the United States. 

On the other hand, those who have tried to resist have suffered the consequences. Such is the case of the US blockade on Cuba, which has been in place for more than six decades and whose restrictions were increased during Trump's first term in office, with increasingly dire impacts on the Cuban people.

 What these examples show is that a large part of the local elites in the region are comfortable with submission to our northern neighbor, beyond statements of supposed equality in cooperation with the regional hegemon. On the other hand, those who have tried to resist have suffered the consequences. Such is the case of the US blockade on Cuba, which has been in place for more than six decades and whose restrictions were increased during Trump's first term in office, with increasingly dire impacts on the Cuban people. In other words, the carrot and the stick are more present than ever in our region. By one means or another, Trump wants to keep Latin America and the Caribbean under the US boot. 

Trump's pardon of Orlando Hernández, the former Honduran dictator sentenced to 45 years in prison in the United States for cocaine trafficking, only confirms that the supposed war on drugs is nothing more than a great excuse to advance with a heavy hand in Latin America and the Caribbean and thus attempt to reaffirm its declining hegemony in the face of China.

The eternal excuse of drug trafficking

Between September 2 and October 15, 80 people were killed by US military forces in international waters in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific, under the pretext of the war on drug trafficking and without any evidence to support it. Volker Türk, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, stated that these were extrajudicial executions, as there had been no prior trial. Colombian President Gustavo Petro also reported that some of those killed were Colombian fishermen. However, the attacks continue and the US military presence in the Caribbean shows no sign of abating. 

Trump's pardon of Orlando Hernández, the former Honduran dictator sentenced to 45 years in prison in the United States for cocaine trafficking, only confirms that the supposed war on drugs is nothing more than a great excuse to advance with a heavy hand in Latin America and the Caribbean and thus attempt to reaffirm its declining hegemony in the face of China. In this case, the target is Venezuela, as it has a scarce resource that is essential to the US military industry: oil. Since it has refused to submit to US terms, the US is threatening a possible invasion under the pretext of the war on drugs and the defense of democracy. 

Illustration 2:Main cocaine trafficking flows, 2020-2023 (Source: UNODC, 2025)

According to the latest report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Colombia, followed by Peru and Bolivia, are the main countries from which cocaine departed in the region between 2020 and 2023. Furthermore, most of the cocaine from Colombia is trafficked northward along the Pacific coast, meaning that the Caribbean is not the main route and Venezuela does not appear among the main countries from which cocaine originated during that period. 

The pardon of a convicted drug trafficker goes hand in hand with the claim of the alleged existence of a drug trafficking cartel called the Cartel of the Suns, led by Nicolás Maduro. However, no evidence has been presented in this regard, in line with the indiscriminate killing of people in international waters and the expulsion of migrants without any arguments other than the word of Trump, the new “god” of the region and to whom some already pay homage. 

Illustration 3: Regional routes of cocaine trafficking (Source: UNODC, 2025)

In November, Human Rights Watch and Cristosal published a report denouncing that 252 Venezuelans were subjected to arbitrary detention and enforced disappearance under international human rights law and that US authorities repeatedly denied relatives of those sent to the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) information about their whereabouts, making the US government complicit in their enforced disappearances. In September, it was revealed that Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele had agreed to take in up to 300 migrants expelled from the US, mostly Venezuelans, in exchange for a payment of $4.7 million. He basically agreed to become Trump's jailer, making himself an accomplice to his criminal actions.

Trump's arrival in the White House meant transforming that state of alert into an advance of the US war machine to reaffirm its hegemony and remind those who dispute it that Latin America and the Caribbean belong to it. 

The United States' attempt to regain regional hegemony and control those who still resist is clear. Until not so long ago, our northern neighbor concentrated its imperial efforts on Central Asia, and Latin America was the backyard that it did not give much importance to. However, China's influence in the region, mainly through trade agreements and direct investments without many conditions, and its systematic advance over the territory of some of the largest Latin American countries, put the country that still holds military hegemony in the region on alert. Trump's arrival in the White House meant transforming that state of alert into an advance of the US war machine to reaffirm its hegemony and remind those who dispute it that Latin America and the Caribbean belong to it. 

The resistance of the peoples

Despite the ever-present intention of the United States to subjugate its backyard, history shows us that the resistance of the peoples has always been present and that is why they have needed all their criminal machinery to advance on our territories and install their puppets in power. Today is no exception. Beyond the complicity of local elites and the lack of coverage of resistance movements throughout the region, the peoples of Latin America and the Caribbean will not simply accept the US military advance on their territories. 

Protests throughout the region calling for the rejection of the invasion of Venezuela have already begun, starting with the Venezuelan people themselves and the people of the United States who do not align themselves with the imperialist decisions of the Trump administration. In Ecuador, the people have opposed the existence of military bases on their territory in clear rejection of the proposal of the new national government aligned with the United States. In Colombia, the social movement has been systematically opposing the militarization of its territory. We need only remember Olga Castillo, who died fighting for justice for her daughter, who was the victim of sexual violence by US military personnel at a military base in Colombia. Today, after more than 16 years, her case remains unpunished. In Argentina, as well as in other countries in the region, protests against the US military advance have also been present.

what is clear is that the United States has permission to continue advancing in the militarization of the region and that, if we the people do not stand firm in our resistance, this will only bring us more pain and violence, as has been demonstrated in all the places where US military forces have set foot.  

At the same time, some regional cooperation organizations such as CARICOM (with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago), CELAC, and the BRICS National Council have opposed the US invasion of Venezuela and have called for Latin America and the Caribbean to remain a region of peace, although no one has said what action they will take if the invasion goes ahead. 

It is worth asking whether these mobilizations and statements will be enough to stop an invasion. In the meantime, what is clear is that the United States has permission to continue advancing in the militarization of the region and that, if we the people do not stand firm in our resistance, this will only bring us more pain and violence, as has been demonstrated in all the places where US military forces have set foot.